Winnipeg Closed Transactions
A tale of two timelines this week: nearly two-thirds of homes closed within 10 days at a steep over-asking premium, while everything that lingered past two weeks sold at a discount. The market is rewarding speed almost without exception.
Core medians at a glance
The five numbers that anchor the week. Across all 113 closings, the typical home listed at $424,900 and sold at $455,000 — a median gain of +$20,100 (+4.68%) over asking, in a median of 8 days.
Of the 113 transactions, 70 sold above list (62%), 7 closed exactly at asking, and 36 sold below (32%). Among homes that beat their price, the median premium was +9.7%, with total dollar volume of $57.2M.
The split between winners and discounts isn't random — it tracks almost perfectly with days on market. The homes that sold fast sold high; the ones that sat sold soft. Time on market was the single clearest predictor of outcome this week.
Top of the market: biggest premiums
The five largest dollar premiums were led by 259 Churchill Drive, which closed $192,100 over its $649,900 ask — a 29.6% premium in just 12 days. 723 Haney Street delivered the steepest percentage gain of the week at +40.9%.
| Address | List | Sold | Over Ask | Premium | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 259 Churchill Drive | $649,900 | $842,000 | +$192,100 | +29.6% | 12 |
| 723 Haney Street | $439,900 | $620,000 | +$180,100 | +40.9% | 9 |
| 149 Egerton Road | $599,900 | $761,167 | +$161,267 | +26.9% | 7 |
| 40 Evesham Key | $749,900 | $875,000 | +$125,100 | +16.7% | 8 |
| 242 Tufnell Drive | $399,900 | $515,000 | +$115,100 | +28.8% | 5 |
Every one of the top five closed in 12 days or fewer, reinforcing the central pattern: aggressive pricing plus a quick sale was the formula for the strongest results.
Neighbourhood heat: where deals clustered
Ranked by closing volume, the busiest areas fall into three tiers: 1G and 2F led with 7 sales each, 3K followed with 6, and 1Bw, 1K, and 4D each closed 5. The leaders tell different stories — 1G skewed higher-end (median sold $660,000) with strong premiums (+11.7%), while 2F posted the higher over-asking rate at 86%. Among the five-sale areas, 4D stood out with an 80% over-asking rate.
| Area | Closings | Median Sold | Over-Asking | Avg Premium | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1G | 7 | $660,000 | 71% | +11.73% | 8 |
| 2F | 7 | $515,000 | 86% | +6.98% | 8 |
| 3K | 6 | $478,750 | 50% | +2.91% | 7 |
| 1Bw | 5 | $520,000 | 60% | +3.51% | 8 |
| 1K | 5 | $465,000 | 40% | +1.33% | 14 |
| 4D | 5 | $410,000 | 80% | +4.16% | 8 |
Days-on-market analysis
This is the week's defining structure. Closings clustered hard in the 6–10 day band — nearly two-thirds of all sales — and that band performed extraordinarily: 85% sold over asking at an average premium near +9.4%. Then the floor drops out.
| Days on Market | Share of Closings | Over-Asking Rate | Avg Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5 | 7 (6.2%) | 43% | +4.41% |
| 6–10 | 73 (64.6%) | 85% | +9.35% |
| 11–15 | 10 (8.8%) | 40% | +3.37% |
| 16–20 | 8 (7.1%) | 0% | -11.09% |
| 21–30 | 10 (8.8%) | 0% | -4.37% |
| 31+ | 5 (4.4%) | 20% | -1.97% |
Past the 10-day mark, over-asking rates collapse from 85% to 40%, and beyond 15 days not a single home in the 16–30 day range sold over asking — those listings averaged discounts of 4% to 11%. The market gives a roughly one-week window of strength; after that, leverage shifts decisively to buyers. The fastest 0–5 day band also underperformed the 6–10 band, suggesting a few were priced for speed rather than maximum return.
Where the volume lives: price bands
The $400K–$500K band was again the market's center of gravity at 28% of all closings, with the $300K–$600K range collectively over 60% of activity. Over-asking strength climbed up the price ladder, peaking in the $600K–$800K band at 79%.
| Price Band | Share | Over-Asking Rate | Avg Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $300K | 15 (13.3%) | 20% | -6.76% |
| $300K–$400K | 21 (18.6%) | 62% | +6.38% |
| $400K–$500K | 32 (28.3%) | 66% | +6.91% |
| $500K–$600K | 17 (15.0%) | 71% | +5.95% |
| $600K–$800K | 19 (16.8%) | 79% | +9.67% |
| $800K and up | 9 (8.0%) | 67% | +7.32% |
The exception sits at the bottom: homes under $300K averaged a negative premium, dragged down by a few deeply distressed or steeply reduced sales — the only band where buyers consistently held the upper hand.
Vintage matters: performance by era
The era pattern held: postwar homes (1946–1980) outperformed, posting the highest average premium at +8.3% on the largest sample. Homes built 1981–2010 led on over-asking frequency at 78%. The newest construction (2011+) commanded the highest median price but the weakest bidding dynamics — just 27% over asking.
| Build Era | Count | Over-Asking Rate | Avg Premium | Median Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-1945 | 19 | 47% | -0.63% | $339,900 |
| 1946–1980 (postwar) | 51 | 69% | +8.33% | $438,000 |
| 1981–2010 | 27 | 78% | +6.72% | $565,000 |
| 2011 and newer | 15 | 27% | +0.07% | $625,000 |
Established neighbourhoods, mature lots, and renovation-friendly footprints in the $400K–$550K sweet spot draw the deepest buyer pools — and the most competitive bidding.
Newer homes sell at higher absolute prices but list closer to fair value, leaving little room for bidding wars. Buyers pay up front rather than at the close.
The discount column
The 36 homes that sold below asking tell the cliff's other side — their median time on market was 17.5 days, more than double the 8-day median for homes that beat their list. The three steepest percentage cuts hit dated or distressed properties at the price extremes.
| Address | List | Sold | Discount | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 426 St Anthony Avenue | $179,000 | $125,000 | -30.2% | 16 |
| 781 Valour Road | $120,000 | $85,000 | -29.2% | 19 |
| 2062 Gallagher Avenue | $109,900 | $95,000 | -13.6% | 29 |
426 St Anthony Avenue and 781 Valour Road — both pre-1925 homes under $180K — absorbed cuts near 30%. The lesson echoes Section 04: extended time on market and weak pricing reinforce each other.
Speed is the whole story this week
Winnipeg's market this week ran on a single axis: time. Homes that sold inside ten days captured an 85% over-asking rate and premiums near double digits. Homes that crossed the two-week line sold at discounts, with essentially no over-asking activity past 15 days.
For sellers, the implication is sharp — the first week on market is where leverage lives. Price to generate immediate competition, because the cost of a stale listing is measured in real dollars off the close. For buyers, patience pays: inventory surviving past two weeks is where negotiating room opens up.
The structural fundamentals — a $455,000 median, $369/sqft pricing, postwar homes leading on premium — remain consistent with recent weeks. What sharpened this week was the penalty for sitting.