A Firm Seller's Market
Heat Climbs into the Upper-Mid Range
Detached & Condo Transactions · May 11 – May 17, 2026
Overall Tone
🔥 Seller's Market
Market Temperature Snapshot
00 / OVERVIEW73%
Above Asking
Seller's Market
This week's read
🔥
A firm seller's market
~73% closed above asking at +8% average premium, with a fast 8-day median DOM
◧
Clear segmentation
Heat concentrated in mid-to-upper detached homes; condos and sub-$300K entry-level homes cooling
⬆
Sweet spot moved up to $600K–$1M
81% over asking and the highest premium of any band this week
Overall Market Overview
01 / MARKETTotal Sales
157
High weekly volume
Avg Sold Price
~$506K
Median ~$469K
Property Mix
97.5% / 2.5%
Houses 153 · Condos 4
Above Asking
~73%
At asking ~10%
Below Asking
~17%
A meaningful tail
Build Year Range
1900–2026
Wide spread of stock
Detached homes overwhelmingly dominate market activity. Condos are a very small share of weekly transactions and — as detailed below — are no longer competing on price with detached stock.
Days on Market · The 14-Day Tipping Point ⚠️
02 / DOMThe most actionable pattern of the week: a clear cliff in negotiating power once a listing crosses the two-week mark, and an outright collapse beyond 30 days. Each bar shows the share selling above asking by time on market.
0–7 days
8–14 days
15–30 days
30+ days
For sellers: Properties selling within 14 days command the strongest premiums (8–10% over asking, 73–81% closing above list). Beyond 14 days premiums fall sharply, and once a listing crosses 30 days, not a single one closed above asking — averaging 4% below list. Have a Plan B by day 10; after day 30, expect to give back 4–10% or more.
Sold Price vs Listing Price
03 / PRICINGThe market favoured sellers again, but with a meaningful tail of underperformers: ~73% above asking, ~10% at asking, ~17% below.
Top 5 by Premium %
| Address | Premium % |
|---|---|
| 325 Larche Crescent | +32.0% |
| 15 Stoneham Crescent | +31.8% |
| 242 Queen Street | +29.0% |
| 50 Haig Avenue | +27.1% |
| 1190 Grosvenor Avenue | +26.0% |
Top 5 by Premium $ Amount
| Address | Premium $ | Premium % |
|---|---|---|
| 79 Barker Boulevard | +$250,000 | +22.7% |
| 15 Stoneham Crescent | +$178,100 | +31.8% |
| 27 Elstree Court | +$175,155 | +21.9% |
| 1190 Grosvenor Avenue | +$156,100 | +26.0% |
| 306 Brock Street | +$146,750 | +21.6% |
Biggest Discounts 🔻
| Address | Discount | DOM |
|---|---|---|
| 395 Toronto Street | −21.4% (−$29,900) | 29 days |
| 563 Aberdeen Avenue | −15.2% (−$12,900) | 39 days |
| #9 183 Harrow Street (condo) | −11.0% (−$14,900) | 0 days |
| #114 235 Bridgeland Drive (condo) | −10.5% (−$27,400) | 8 days |
| 12 Bard Place | −8.6% (−$145,000) | 7 days |
| 164 Parkview Street | −8.8% (−$14,900) | 33 days |
Pattern: The deepest percentage discounts cluster at the low end — older properties below $250K, where buyer pools are smaller. The largest dollar discount (12 Bard Place, −$145K) came from the luxury tier, where a single mispriced listing can swing the segment. Mid-range homes ($300K–$1M) rarely traded below asking.
Price Band Heat Map
04 / PRICE BANDSBeyond volume, this shows where competition is most intense.
| Price Band | Sold | Share | % Above | Avg Premium | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < $300K | 15 | ~10% | ~13% | ~−4.7% | ~15 d |
| $300K – $400K | 34 | ~22% | ~77% | ~+9.5% | ~7 d |
| $400K – $600K | 71 | ~45% | ~79% | ~+9.0% | ~11 d |
| $600K – $1M ⭐ | 32 | ~20% | ~81% | ~+10.2% | ~9 d |
| > $1M | 5 | ~3% | ~80% | ~+7.9% | ~7 d |
Seller's sweet spot: $600K – $1M. This bracket combined the highest share of over-asking sales, the highest average premium, and a fast 9-day DOM. The $300K–$600K band — the volume engine — ran a close second. The only weak segment is sub-$300K, where demand thins out and most listings closed below asking.
Performance by Build Era
05 / BUILD ERAA counter-intuitive but consistent finding:
| Build Era | Sold | Avg Premium | Median $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-1950 | 31 | ~+5.8% | ~$321 |
| 1950 – 1980 ⭐ | 56 | ~+10.6% | ~$397 |
| 1980 – 2010 | 50 | ~+9.1% | ~$413 |
| 2010 onward | 19 | ~+2.2% | ~$347 |
Post-war homes (1950s–1970s) are the most competitively bid asset right now at +10.6% average. Newer 2010+ construction sold at premiums of just over 2% — most at or barely above asking. Several brand-new builds (1096 Fernbank, 14 Duck Creek, 130 Bill Briercliffe) sold at or just below list with extended DOM.
Likely drivers: (a) attractive entry prices in older neighbourhoods, (b) buyers willing to renovate, and (c) limited bidding pressure on new builds where pricing is already calibrated to current values.
Price Per Square Foot Reference
06 / $/SQFT| Segment | Median $/sqft |
|---|---|
| All properties | ~$388 |
| Pre-1950 stock | ~$321 |
| 1950–1980 stock | ~$397 |
| 1980–2010 stock | ~$413 |
| Post-2010 construction | ~$347 |
| 25th percentile (all) | ~$332 |
| 75th percentile (all) | ~$443 |
Listings substantially below segment median may be candidates for bidding wars; those well above warrant scrutiny of unique features or potential overpricing.
House vs Condominium
07 / TYPEA divergence worth flagging — condos materially underperformed houses this week.
| Type | Sold | Avg Price | Avg Premium | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached House | 153 | ~$511K | ~+8.3% | ~10 d |
| Condominium | 4 | ~$321K | ~−4.0% | ~6 d |
The condo sample is very small (n=4), so treat as directional. Still, the direction is unambiguous: of four condo sales, only one (#9 20 Orchard Hill Drive) closed meaningfully above asking; two sold materially below. Condo sellers should price defensively and not expect bidding wars.
Key Takeaways · Actionable
08 / TAKEAWAYS🎯 $600K–$1M is the hottest band
81% sold above asking with the highest average premium. The $300K–$600K volume bracket runs a close second.
⏱️ 14-day rule holds, 30-day cliff absolute
Zero listings beyond 30 days sold above asking. Plan price adjustments before that threshold.
🏠 Post-war homes (1950s–70s) strongest
Average premium of +10.6%, well ahead of newer construction.
🏢 Condo sellers: price defensively
Only 1 of 4 condos closed clearly over asking; the segment averaged below list.
💰 Sub-$300K is the weakest segment
Average −4.7% vs list and the longest DOM. Older small properties need realistic pricing.
🔥 Broad strength across $300K–$1M
Buyers remain highly active throughout the detached mid-to-upper market.
Weekly Summary
A firm seller's market —
with heat climbing into the upper-mid range.
Well-priced mid-range and upper-mid detached homes continued to sell quickly, often with multiple offers. Buyers remained highly active across the $300K–$1M detached market, while condos, sub-$300K listings, and aged listings (30+ days) faced increasing resistance.
The 14-day mark remains the line between seller and buyer leverage — and after 30 days, negotiating power flips entirely.
※ Methodology & Disclaimer: Sample of 157 transactions (153 houses, 4 condos), May 11–17, 2026, manually compiled from MLS data. 2 records missing square footage and 1 missing build year were excluded from per-segment $/sqft and era calculations. Most figures are rounded — treat as approximate. The condo sample is small; read directionally. This report is for market reference only and does not constitute real estate or investment advice.